NBA 1st Quarter Chase System

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I have a thread going in the NBA forum regarding quarter plays with regards to quarter differential. It is posted at http://therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=652720&page=2 . I have been looking over some things, and thought a 1st quarter chase system may work better. However, its not chasing one team, its just chasing the games throughout the night based on first quarter differential. I just want to track this somewhere, and figured this is the place. Every bet is to win $20, fairly simple. So, you bet to win $20 on the earliest game(s), and depending on the outcomes, you either bet to win $20 again on the next set of games or to win $42 etc. Now, you obviously have to wait to see if your first bet wins, so unfortunately you have to be close to a computer. Most nights, I am around once the games start, so I'll try my best to see how it works...Tonight's plays below, but betting amount depends on prior games. If two games go off at the same time, and you're off a loss, just split the total on the next two games. Lines are -115 for the time being.

1Q Phx -1 to win $20
1Q Hou -0.5 to win ?
1Q Atl +1 to win ?

Late games and updates as soon as I can post them.

 

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Final card...will update to win $xx as night progresses.

1Q Phx -1 to win $20
1Q Hou -0.5
1Q Atl +1
1Q NJ +0.5
1Q Min +1
1Q Phi +1
1Q LAC +3.5

 

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Series 1
Phx -1 23 to win 20, loss
Hou +0.5 36.23 to win 31.50

Series 2
Atl +1 36.23 to win 31.50

 

[BetHalfLines]

Series 1
Phx -1 23 to win 20, loss
Hou +0.5 36.23 to win 31.50, loss
NJ +0.5 38.03 to win 33.07

Series 2
Atl +1 36.23 to win 31.50, loss
waiting...

Series 3
Min +1 38.03 to win 33.07

Series 4
Phi +1 38.03 to win 33.07

 

[BetHalfLines]

Series 1
Phx -1 23 to win 20, loss (h)
Hou +0.5 36.23 to win 31.50, loss (h)
NJ +0.5 38.03 to win 33.07, loss (h)
waiting...next bet to win 70

Series 2
Atl +1 36.23 to win 31.50, loss (h)
waiting...next bet to win 70

Series 3
Min +1 38.03 to win 33.07, push (p)
LAC +3.5 57.98 to win 50.42, pending

Series 4 - CLOSED
Phi +1 38.03 to win 33.07, win (a)

Amounts are shifted to keep total bets down, but adjusted accordingly to make $20 each series closed. Disregard the () after, its for my tracking purposes.

 

[BetHalfLines]

A new series opens when all are closed. Nice spread in start times today. Todays plays in order are...

Ind +3
Cle -4
Den -2
SA PK
Cha +3.5

Series 1
Phx -1 23 to win 20, loss (h)
Hou +0.5 36.23 to win 31.50, loss (h)
NJ +0.5 38.03 to win 33.07, loss (h)
Ind +3 80.50 to win 70, pending

Series 2
Atl +1 36.23 to win 31.50, loss (h)
Cle -4 80.50 to win 70, pending

Series 3 - CLOSED
Min +1 38.03 to win 33.07, push (p)
LAC +3.5 57.98 to win 50.42, win (h)

Series 4 - CLOSED

 

[BetHalfLines]

Series 1
Phx -1 23 to win 20, loss (h)
Hou +0.5 36.23 to win 31.50, loss (h)
NJ +0.5 38.03 to win 33.07, loss (h)
Ind +3 80.50 to win 70, loss (h)
Den -2 173.08 to win 150.50, pending

Series 2
Atl +1 36.23 to win 31.50, loss (h)
Cle -4 80.50 to win 70, loss (a)
waiting...

Series 3 - Closed
Series 4 - Closed

 

[BetHalfLines]

forgot, SA is next in series 2...

Series 2
Atl +1 36.23 to win 31.50, loss (h)
Cle -4 80.50 to win 70, loss (a)
SA PK 173.08 to win 150.50, pending

 

[BetHalfLines]

Series 1
Phx -1 23 to win 20, loss (h)
Hou +0.5 36.23 to win 31.50, loss (h)
NJ +0.5 38.03 to win 33.07, loss (h)
Ind +3 80.50 to win 70, loss (h)
Den -2 173.08 to win 150.50, loss (h)
Cha +3.5 372.12 to win 323.58, pending

Series 2
Atl +1 36.23 to win 31.50, loss (h)
Cle -4 80.50 to win 70, loss (a)
SA PK 173.08 to win 150.50, pending

Need to catch some breaks here as I think its like 2-7 so far. Lots of chasing going on. Home teams have been money at covering, however, which is why I'm tracking that as well (home teams, 7-2 ats 1Q).

 

[BetHalfLines]

Series 1
Phx -1 23 to win 20, loss (h)
Hou +0.5 36.23 to win 31.50, loss (h)
NJ +0.5 38.03 to win 33.07, loss (h)
Ind +3 80.50 to win 70, loss (h)
Den -2 173.08 to win 150.50, loss (h)
Cha +3.5 372.12 to win 323.58, pending

Series 2
Atl +1 36.23 to win 31.50, loss (h)
Cle -4 80.50 to win 70, loss (a)
SA PK 173.08 to win 150.50, loss (h)
Cha +3.5 372.12 to win 323.50, pending

Home teams now 8-2 ats, and 2-8 on my picks (which are picked based on avg. pt. differential). This is a pretty astonishing rate through 10 games, so either going against point differential, or just home teams may be the play ats. I went back a few days, and the home teams don't seem to play out like this too often, but taking the dog w/ regards to pt. differential did play out pretty well. Will keep tracking...(and notice, betting Cha on both series for same amount)

 

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Cha +3.5 is EV right now...so luckily we have 10 mins yet until gametime. so those should be 323.50 to win 323.50 x 2 (one for each series)

and on another note...do NOT follow these. I am simply tracking this to see what kind of numbers it shows. All money in this is theoretical at this point. You'd be insane to follow.

 

[BetHalfLines]

Series 1-4, All CLOSED. Picks are 3-8, home teams are 8-3. With a couple games starting at the same time, multiple series will be opened. Todays plays are (and I kind of want to do the exact opposite of all of them)...

Mil +2
Bos -5
Was +2.5
Tor -0.5
NYK PK
Den +1
Mem +2
Det -0.5
Phi +1.5

Series 5
Mil +2 23/20

Series 6
Bos -5 23/20

Series 7
Was +2.5 23/20

Series 8
Tor -0.5 23/20

 

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Series 5
Mil +2 23/20, loss (h)
NYK PK 49.45/43

 

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"System" is pretty flawless at picking losers. So, I will do exactly that for the rest of the evening, but it looks like taking who 'shouldn't' cover the 1Q is the way to play, or just take the home team to cover. Will keep tracking...

Series 5
Mil +2 23/20, loss (h)
NYK PK 49.45/43, pend

Series 6
Bos -5 23/20, loss (a)
Den +1 49.45/43

Series 7
Was +2.5 23/20, pend

Series 8
Tor -0.5 23/20, loss (h)
Mem +2 49.45/43, pend

Series 9
Det -0.5 23/20, pend

and late plays are Dal -2, Cha +3.5, Chi -1

 

[BetHalfLines]

Series 5
Mil +2 23/20, loss (h)
NYK PK 49.45/43, loss (a)
Phi +1.5 106.32/92.45, pend

 

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Series 6 CLOSED
Bos -5 23/20, loss (a)
Den +1 49.45/43, win (a)

Series 7 CLOSED
Was +2.5 23/20 win (a)

Series 8 CLOSED
Tor -0.5 23/20, loss (h)
Mem +2 49.45/43 win (a)

Series 9
Det -0.5 23/20, loss (h)
Dal -2 49.45/43, pend

 

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Series 5 CLOSED
Mil +2 23/20, loss (h)
NYK PK 49.45/43, loss (a)
Phi +1.5 106.32/92.45, win (a)

Series 6 CLOSED
Bos -5 23/20, loss (a)
Den +1 49.45/43, win (a)

Series 7 CLOSED
Was +2.5 23/20 win (a)

Series 8 CLOSED
Tor -0.5 23/20, loss (h)
Mem +2 49.45/43 win (a)

Series 9 CLOSED
Det -0.5 23/20, loss (h)
Dal -2 49.45/43, win (h)

Series 10
Cha +3.5 23/20, pend

Series 11
LAC +1 23/20, pend